Who I’m “Cuffing” With This NFL Season

With the NFL season kicking off a week from today, I’m doubling up on fantasy football because honestly it’s what everyone is thinking about these days. While you’re “working” you’re obviously checking out rankings or scouring the waiver wire. Driving your kids around to soccer practice, yeah I’m sure you didn’t hear anything they said in the backseat because you’re thinking about that trade offer your buddy sent you. Hell, you’re probably not even 100% focused while having sex with your wife…a part of you is wondering if you should have handcuffed CJ Anderson with Ronnie Hillman instead of taking that flyer in the last round. Okay, maybe that’s just me (just kidding babe – I LOVE YOU), but I digress.  As a side note, if this ISN’T enough fantasy football for you – also check out my 10 Commandments for Fantasy Football)

This past November my wife and I had a friend come to visit us from NYC. In the process of catching up, my wife had to ask him of course about his love life. Things were going well, but he mentioned not having a woman in his life right now despite it almost being “cuffing season”. I thought to myself…what the f**k is ‘cuffing season’? No I don’t live under a rock, but I had just gotten married and was with my wife for 8 years before we got hitched…so I’m totally oblivious to the problems facing single folks of our generation.

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Anyway, if you’re a fan of Matthew Berry TMR or just frequent the Fantasy Football page on ESPN, you’ve probably seen at some point his annual column where he talks about the guys he’s all in on. He calls it his “Flag Planting”, so this is my take on that. The guys going into this upcoming NFL season that I’m “cuffing” with from September until January, that will hopefully lead me (and you all reading this of course) to the fantasy football glory land…a championship. I’m going to try to spread it across the rounds (i.e. I’m not just going to “cuff” with the top 10 players on the draft board, that’d be pointless) to show you who I love throughout the course of the draft. So let’s get to it…

Early Rounds:

Adrian Peterson – seems like an obvious name, I know, but I’ve been shocked at the level of skepticism and concern surrounding AP going into this season. I get that he’s 30 years old, missed essentially all of last season and carries a very steep draft price (top 3 pick). I also get the moral dilemma some people face and I certainly don’t support how he chose to discipline his son…but listen, this is fantasy football and all I care about is his production on the field. For me he’s the clear-cut #1 overall player on the board. Call it a gut feeling, but I just think he’s coming out with a vengeance this season – determined to remind everyone across the league how transcendent a player he can be when healthy. Plus, he’s never had this much talent around him. He’s got a good young quarterback, downfield speed threats at WR on the outside in Mike Wallace and Charles Johnson, and a solid tight end in Kyle Rudolph. I know everyone points to how AP will make things easier for those WRs on the outside because teams will bring an extra man into the box. That’s fair, but I think there will also be times where the reverse is true, because once teams start to get burned by 40-50 yard bombs downfield to Mike Wallace, I think they’ll be moving those safeties back a few yards…and that’s all AP needs to turn some 4-5 yard runs into huge plays. If I have the #1 pick, he’s my guy…I’m all in.

CJ Anderson – I understand the doubters who point out he’s unproven, but frankly I think you’re all missing out on what’s important. He’s the running back on a team with Peyton Manning at QB, and to boot it’s coming off a season in which Peyton clearly broke down at the end of the year. They’re obviously going to be more conservative on offense to manage his throws and keep him healthy for what matters – the playoffs. So that means heavy doses of CJ in the run game. Plus, he’s their best back in pass protection and he’s a good receiver out of the backfield. As if that wasn’t enough, he’s now running in a Gary Kubiak offense – one that is predicated on running the ball, particularly in the red zone. He made Justin Forsett into an all-Pro running back last season and the Broncos have much better weapons at every skill position. Anderson will face soft fronts all day long and take advantage.

Julio Jones – outside of a healthy Megatron, I don’t think there’s a more physically gifted receiver in the entire NFL. I think Julio has that kind of upside if he can stay healthy for a full season, which has tended to be his issue. He usually has some kind of nagging injury to slows him down for a few weeks, but when healthy last year he put up some monster games (both receptions and yardage-wise). I’m a believer that touchdowns are fluky, but with Roddy White on the back nine of his career, the running game in a state of flux and no reliable tight end on the roster, I think Julio’s red zone looks will go through the roof. So I’m predicting double-digit touchdowns for JJ this season, and with his upside I think he can be the #1 receiver in fantasy (even though he typically is drafted as the 3rd – 6th). I’m grabbing the dirty bird on every roster that I possibly can.

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DeAndre Hopkins – Don’t care that the quarterback situation isn’t great (for the record, Brian Hoyer is a serviceable option at QB). I’m buying up all of the shares I can of Nuk, because I think he’s taking the leap into stardom this season. No Arian Foster, possibly for the first 2-4 weeks (as a best case scenario), and who the hell else are they going to throw to? Seriously, who’s their next receiver in line for targets? Cecil Shorts? Oh, wait, he really might be their other starting receiver? HAHAHAHAHAHA…yeah give me DeAndre all day every day, and hopefully a couple times on Sundays. Seriously, this guy will be a target monster this year – especially in the red zone without Foster on the field.

Brandin Cooks – He’s a popular name, and I think it’s for good reason. Nobody doubts the guys talent, and it’s hard to argue against the opportunity in front of him this season…he’s still playing in a Sean Payton offense, with Drew Brees at QB and they traded away Jimmy Graham this offseason. Plenty of extra targets to split up, and I think Cooks gets the lion’s share of those. Yes, most of his targets will be close to the line of scrimmage. But this guy has the quicks to turn a 5-yard pass in the flat into a big gain. I think he’s PPR gold this season – if he stays healthy all season has the potential for 100+ receptions. He’s drafted as a WR2, but has low-end WR1 upside in my opinion. I’m firmly on the bandwagon…WHO DAT!

Middle Rounds:

Allen Robinson – I know he plays for the Jags, and I’m not a believer in Blake Bortles. But you know what I am a believer in? That junk time yardage and touchdowns still count the same in fantasy football. The Jaguars will be playing from behind….A LOT, and Robinson is by far their best receiver and most polished route runner. I think he has a great year, particularly in PPR formats. I don’t see any Jags offensive player having a high TD total but I could easily see him eclipsing 80 catches and 1,000 yards.

Davante Adams – I had to move him from the ‘Late Rounds’ section due to the Jordy Nelson injury, so now he’s an obvious choice. I’ve been high on Adams from the beginning because of how many 3-wide sets the Packers run, and because he caught my attention at the end of last season once he got comfortable with the playbook. He obviously jumps up into a starting role to replace Jordy and has the potential for a big year catching passes from Aaron Rodgers every week.

Ben Roethlisberger – It pains me to write nice things about him because I think he’s a complete slimeball of a man, but he’s a great option as a fantasy QB. He’s got amazing weapons around him: arguably the most polished route-runner in football…Antonio Brown, the best all-around back (once he’s available week 3) in Le’Veon Bell, and a freakish downfield threat (again once he’s available) in Martavis Bryant. Frankly, I think you can snag Big Ben for good value because some people are worried about the impact of no Bell for 2 weeks and no Bryant for 4. I’m not concerned, you know why? Because the Steelers’ defense is total garbage and Ben will be throwing all day. If they don’t put up big points, they’ve got no shot…and this is about fantasy football, not real football.

Greg Olsen – He’s routinely getting drafted as the 4th (sometimes 5th) tight end and I think that’s just ludicrous. I get that Travis Kelce is a flashier name – when you draft Olsen nobody else in the room will go “ooooh and ahhhhh” or “damn I really wanted him”. But you know what he is? He’s a steady, dependable, and extremely productive player who has a legit chance to improve upon his career year from last season. I don’t think it was a fluke that Cam Newton targeted Olsen 9 times in the 1st half of their last preseason game against the Patriots. I think that’s because he has no other options that he has faith in – Kelvin Benjamin…out for the season. Devon Funchess, the kid everyone assumes will replace him…hasn’t practiced. Olsen is the clear #3 tight end in fantasy, but he’s going behind Jason Witten in some drafts. That is just insane…take advantage and enjoy the results all season.

Later Rounds:

Tom Brady – Everyone has been skittish about drafting Brady, and understandably so. He’s in line for a 4-game suspension and the Patriots have a week 4 bye so he had potential to miss the first 5 weeks of fantasy; fair concerns. But at this point the odds are pretty high that Brady doesn’t miss 4 games this season – hell he might not miss any if the judge approves an injunction allowing him to play while the appeal process runs its course (or even crazier, if he rules in his favor). Worst case scenario you have Brady from week 6 on, in which case you know he’d come back ready to set the league on fire. Best case, he’s available all season and you’re getting a top 5 or 6 QB option at great value. Swing for the fences and grab Brady if you can while his price is still cheap, and just protect yourself with an adequate backup like Sam Bradford or Ryan Tannehill.  Editor’s Note:  Obviously the ruling this morning will send Brady’s draft stock sky-rocketing.  I’m still cuffed to him in the middle round because he will be a beast this season (just slightly motivated you know)

(Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images - USA Today)
(Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images – USA Today)

John Brown – He’s started to dart up everyone’s draft board, so you might not get him as cheap as people did earlier in the preseason. But he’s worth it, even if you have to reach a little to grab him. Bruce Arians has consistently referred to him as a clone of T.Y. Hilton. That’s pretty high praise from your head coach, and since Arians was a huge part of Hilton’s development in Indy, I feel pretty confident that he’ll maximize this kid’s talents. Plus, when Carson Palmer was healthy last season this kid always seemed to show up on film with big plays downfield. With Larry Fitz on the back nine of his career and Michael Floyd recovering from three fractured fingers, Brown will get his opportunity to run away with the job. See what Brown can do for you…

Eddie Royal – The hype train has starter to gain a lot of steam for Royal thanks to all the injuries in training camp to the rest of the receiving core (Kevin White out potentially all year and Alshon Jeffrey battling a calf injury). He can still be had for a good value on draft day and was a favorite of Jay Cutler back in their Bronco days. I expect him to be Cutler’s security blanket out of the slot, and think he’s got a shot to finish with a sneaky 85-90 receptions this year…making him a great WR3/Flex play in PPR formats and a good bench stash in standard leagues.

Matt Jones – Some guys just pass the eye test, you know what I mean? I know that Alfred Morris is the starter, and their offensive line has looked pretty miserable all preseason. I also don’t feel great about Kirk Cousins as the starting QB, but this kid just looks like a dynamic playmaker. Not many running backs at his size (6’ 2”) can move like he can. The Redskins are going to be bad – no way around that – and I think he’ll get involved in their offense sooner rather than later. If I’m throwing darts at the end of the draft, he’s my guy.

Disagree with me? Want to state your claim on another guy for this season? Or just want to tell me how much you LOVED the article (which is obviously what I live for), leave it in the comment section.

Water Cooler Shorts – 8/30/2015

Latest edition of my Water Cooler Shorts…giving you the quick updates you need to know from this weekend’s game before you go into work on Monday morning.

My “conspiracy” might have been on the money

If you missed the article, check it out here. But basically, I theorized that Jay Gruden was trying to get RG III hurt intentionally.  Well, reports have surfaced that he and his coaching staff don’t want Griffin around and even kicked the tires on potential trade opportunities (according to ESPN).  So they’ve already named Kirk Cousins the week 1 starter – even though Gruden tried to back-pedal after that was reported.  Simple fact is, RGIII is not in his long-term plans and there’s a good chance that both sides part ways before the season starts.

Packers should boycott preseason

A week after losing Jordy Nelson for the season, Mike McCarthy was smart enough to sit out Aaron Rodgers for their preseason game on Saturday. They were down three offensive linemen and McCarthy didn’t want to roll the dice. Makes sense – but he still played his other starters and right on cue, Randall Cobb landed awkwardly on their first offensive series and was seen walking to the locker room with a shoulder injury. Early reports are an injury to his AC joint, and it’s not considered severe. All the Cheeseheads can take a deep breath now, but the Packers should think long and hard before they play anyone that matters in their final preseason game.

Brady played and looked…un-Brady like

All preseason the Patriots have been in a tough spot while they wait for resolution to his ‘Deflategate’ suspension. They want Brady to get reps, but obviously need Jimmy G to be ready to roll week 1 if Brady’s not available. So I was curious how much run Brady would get in this game, one that is commonly referred to as a “dress rehearsal” for week 1. Well, Brady played the entire first half and looked pretty terrible for most of it. He threw two really ugly picks trying to hook up with Aaron Dropson, I mean Dobson…and didn’t build any rhythm for the first 28 minutes of the game. Thankfully, he ran the 2-minute drill to perfection and engineered an 80-yard TD drive at the end of the 1st half that should calm the nerves of Pats fans.

The real question, whoever is QB week 1, is whether they’ll have a complete stable of weapons around them. Edelman is still nursing an ankle injury and hasn’t been a full participant in practice, and Brandon LaFell was in a walking boot and has yet to participate at all. They signed Reggie Wayne this week, but that’s an addition that sounds better than it actually is. Wayne’s got nothing left in the tank, so if they’re relying on production from him to replace either LaFell or Edelman, they’ll be seriously screwed.

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Eagles’ offense looked unstoppable

I know it’s just preseason, but the 1st half of their game against the Packers on Saturday was pretty impressive. If you missed it, the Eagles put up 39 points in the first half behind a perfect 10-10 effort from Sam Bradford (121 yards and 3 TDs), and a solid effort from Mark Sanchez in relief (13-19 for 150 yards and 2 TDs). They spread the ball around, got lots of different receivers and backs involved and Chip Kelly’s up tempo offense looked great. If Bradford can stay healthy (which was always the big question mark) he has big-time potential this year. Chip Kelly made a concerted effort this offseason to put his stamp on this roster…and he definitely did. So this is a big season for him to prove that his system works…so far the early results have been extremely positive.

That Tyler Lockett kid is FAST

It’s not like the Seattle Seahawks had major holes going into this season (after back-to-back Super Bowls), but their only criticism has always been the relative lack of weapons around Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch. Well, they traded for Jimmy Graham this offseason and then they drafted this kid…Tyler Lockett. Not sure how involved he’ll be in the offense, but he’s already made his presence felt on special teams with a kickoff returned for a touchdown in week 1 and a punt returned for a touchdown this weekend. Kid must be wearing his PF Flyers…

Julio got paid $$

The Falcons locked up star receiver Julio Jones with a 5-year contract extension worth $71.25M on Saturday. He then promptly sat out of their preseason game that night. Smart move – you locked up your stud…no reason to trot him out there anymore in games that don’t matter. He’s one of the best in the game and now it’s possible he’ll be doing the Dirty Bird and A-Town Stomp until 2020.

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